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2006 NBA Rookies
by Opal / Bballcentral.com Writing Staff

 

Andrea Bargnani, 1st Overall, Toronto:
From a team standpoint, this pick was already made when they traded away Charlie Villanueva, since both he and Bargnani are basically the same player. But aside from the occasional outburst, like his 48-point night against Milwaukee, Villanueva was largely inconsistent and not really a go-to guy when the struggling team needed one. Thus, the Raptors opted for the highly-touted Italian, who at 20 was already drawing comparisons to NBA superstar and fellow European, Dirk Nowitzki.

Now the similarities don't just stop at the fact they're both from the same continent; both players have the requisite height to play center; Bargnani at 7'1', Dirk at 7'; and both were drafted knowing full well they'll probably never fill out the 5 spot at the pro level. Andrea also happens to be a little better filled out in case he's ever asked to take his game to the low block; he weighs in at 248 lbs, while Dirk is still struggling to maintain the 245 lb plateau, even after 8 seasons of trying to bulk up for the rough and long NBA campaign.

But this is where the comparison really starts to hit home: both big men have lethal jump shots, and almost flawless technique and release. Think of Nowitzki, and you think fadeaway jumper, with the most ridiculous arc you've seen; soon enough, young Bargnani may have his own similar trade mark. In the same mould as a baseball player you might say, both also have solid foundations in the long ball; two Europeans enamoured with the 3-point shot, and never afraid to jack up a few when feeling it.

Realistically though, projecting for the future with Bargnani is a dim task, especially for a Canadian Raptors follower like myself. Though he has the height and some of the size, Bargnani never will play center; Toronto already brought in Rasho Nesterovic to fill in that role and to alleviate Chris Bosh from doing so for the foreseeable future; but he won't play power forward either, the next logical position for him, and the one akin to Dirk.

No, Andrea Bargnani, should he like to start as most NBA players do, will have to adjust to playing small forward, against some of the best defenders in the league. Sure, he's said to be able to put the ball on the floor, but guarded by some of the same smaller defenders that dubiously gave Dirk headaches even during his prime, the young Italian will surely struggle in his first year, and might be benched in favour of a more traditional SF, relegated to backup duty for Bosh. Expect no more than 14, 6 and 1 for his rookie campaign.

As for further down the road, Bargnani will come in to his own as Bosh reaches his prime (should the latter decide to stick around in the T-Dot), but Toronto has a reputation of letting stars go before they've made any real impact on the franchise; see: Tracy McGrady, Marcus Camby, Damon Stoudamire, etc. But if and when Chris Bosh is capable of leading the Raptors to any success, it'll be with Bargnani as his sharp-shooting wingman should the balls land in Toronto's favour.

They've already beat the odds once, in the Lottery; and taking another gamble with Andrea Bargnani isn't exactly sure-fire. But looking at GM Bryan Colangelo's record as Phoenix's head man and how he took a flier on troubled high schooler Amare Stoudemire, it's suffice to say the number one pick was a measured risk this year. But don't be surprised Raptors fans, if your Dirk Nowitzki ends up being a Dud Nopickme.

LaMarcus Aldridge, 2nd Overall, Chicago (to Portland):

Here's another head-scratcher: why would another team with a star who's in the middle of a large, long-term deal not draft, but actually trade for a draftee who projects to play the same position as said star? That's the question you've to be asking yourself as a Blazers fan.

LaMarcus Aldridge was a solid player and great defender in the low post at Texas, but at 6'11' and only 234 lbs, playing center in the NBA is likely not what Portland's going to ask Aldridge to do. But this is where the real question comes up; why take the former Longhorn and 2nd pick via trade if he's going to be coming off the bench, just to back up Zach Randolph and possibly Joel Pryzbilla? Sure, they may have redeemed themselves by picking up the dynamic Brandon Roy, but why go out and trade for a player, who, if he becomes good, will create a log-jam at forward for the franchise?

To add to that sinking feeling you Blazers fans might be getting, may I remind you of another player who started only 18 games for your franchise in the 4 years he was there, then went to flourish in Indiana, while you were stuck feeling like the girl who dumped the guy in band just before he hit it big and became a rock star? That's right, I'm talking about Jermaine O'Neal, the forward who Portland literally never had time for, and who Aldridge is conspicuously drawing comparisons to.

The similarities don't just stop at the roster implications both have had and will have; each is a legit 6'11, and though Aldridge is only the aforementioned 234 lbs to O'Neal's 260, LaMarcus has the kind of body that's easy to add muscle to, on top of the fact that Jermaine has had 10 years in the NBA to condition and bulk up. Additionally, the two share the same intensity on defence; the former Texas standout averaged 2 blocks and 1.4 steals a game in college, while the Eau Claire HS graduate averaged over 5 blocks there, albeit against admittedly inferior competition.

LaMarcus Aldridge is also a tough-nosed rebounder. Even in college, where gaudy rebounding stats aren't often found in Division 1, the Longhorn pulled down an average of 9.2 a game, a good indicator that he'll be an accomplished glass-cleaner in the NBA, as rebounding is more of an instinct than something that can be taught. Finally, while most young players on the block are trying to develop their face-up game, Aldridge, in the same way O'Neal is known for, worked tirelessly on the old-fashioned 'back-to-the-basket skill set, an underused commodity in today's NBA, and another asset that will help him make the jump between the college and pro ranks. Should he garner any good playing time, he may average 12, 7 and 1.5 blocks.

In the end though, Portland will have to make a decision one way or the other: keep the promising youngster and prevent the same heartbreak that happened not more than 5 years ago, or let him eventually go due to a lack of playing time and suffer the consequences. His only hope now may be that with the Blazers evidently on the path of a team rebuilding with young talent, that they'll consider Zach Randolph at 25 too old for them, and try to move him and his salary to an up-and-coming team for some more building blocks.

It may seem like an easy call with all the upside that LaMarcus Aldridge has, but with so much money tied up in Randolph, you could say the fog clouding Portland's decision in this case is green.


Adam Morrison, 3rd Overall, Charlotte:
Finally, a pick that makes sense, and a not-too-shabby redemption from the same mind of Michael Jordan that brought you the Kwame Brown fiasco in Washington. Adam Morrison is about as proven as you can get; a 28 point per game scorer at Gonzaga, a tough competitor, and someone with a 'never say die attitude, he's the kind of guy that can rally a young team like the Bobcats to a few extra victories, and spark an intensity the city hasn't seen for many a season in its pro basketball.

Though his moustache looks like a 9th grader's and his hair seemingly just came out of the mop bucket, Morrison's been compared to every good white player from Larry Bird to Wally Szczerbiak. In reality, no one expects him to duplicate Larry Legend's prowess on the hardwood (though he might do the trick hair-wise), so for now, Wally World is a good enough player to emulate; a former All-Star whose sharp-shooting ways have helped Kevin Garnett in the past, and currently, a struggling Boston franchise.

You can probably see where the Bird comparisons come in though; Morrison stands at a good 6'8', and has the same cockiness and some of the outside shooting the Celtics great possessed, but coming in at a very wispy 198 lbs, and suffering from diabetes, the former Bulldog will have a tough time achieving Bird's stature, both physically and on the court. Thus, using Szczerbiak, who's more akin to Adam in height, at 6'7, but a more muscular 244 lbs, we can easily project for the Bobcats a rookie who'll have an immediate impact, the kind you want from a lottery pick, and the kind of attitude needed to turn some heads around the league this season and down the road as well.

That is, if his own teammates don't turn on him first. It's well known that Morrison is a hot-tempered trash-talker; whose insults and verbal jousting were the college equivalent of a young Gary Payton. At Gonzaga though, everyone knew Adam was the alpha dog; he got all the touches, the big shot in crunch time, the ball whenever he wanted it, and the green light to shoot whenever he was feeling it. In Charlotte though, the Bobcats have a very promising young point guard in Raymond Felton, who can shoot and drive with the intensity and accuracy of a shooting guard himself, albeit without the height; and Emeka Okafor, the 2nd pick from 3 years ago who's the cornerstone of the team and is their bulk of low-post offense, along with the oft-injured second-year PF Sean May, who's lighting up the summer league now and will demand the ball more often as he progresses.

And as with every team, there is only one ball, and there's no telling how Morrison will feel when that orange blob isn't in his hands all the time, seeing as that's never been the case with him. Will he pout? Will he ask for a trade? Will he be benched? Will he flourish? There's really no telling, but one thing's for sure: should he get the ball, expect him to provide the outside shooting and scoring touch that many say the Bobcats are extremely lacking from their wing players.

The other glaring fault in Adam is that for all his intensity, it's not always evident on the defensive end. Yes, the Bobcats already have a high-caliber defender, shot-blocker and passing-lane pick-pocket in Gerald Wallace, but unless he improves his shooting and ball-handling to move to the 2-spot, he and Morrison will battle it out for small forward, on a team that can ill afford benching either in favour of the other.

It would almost make sense to play Morrison at shooting guard, if it weren't for his height and sub-par ability to take his man off the dribble, which would make him an awkward off-guard, and an easy defensive check, as you'd only have to guard his shot and not the drive. Therefore, the onus is on Morrison to improve his first step and ballhandling abilities, so that it won't matter where they play him.

If he does all that, I could easily see Morrison getting 18 and 4 (he maxed out at 5.5 rpg in college, that's not a good sign at his height and in his particularly weak conference) out of the gate, but be otherwise ineffective in the passing or defensive aspects of the team. His biggest asset though will be the guidance of MJ behind the scenes, whom he shares that killer instinct with and who he might end up celebrating a playoff berth with sometime down the road in a weak East.


Tyrus Thomas, 4th Overall, Portland (to Chicago)
Here's part two of that confusing situation in Portland; the draftee they traded away for the services of one LaMarcus Aldridge. Coming in, Tyrus Thomas seemingly had the most potential of anyone in this year's meagre NBA draft, and that any team getting him might end up with the next Shawn Marion, Stromile Swift, Ben Wallace or Darius Miles.

While that's quite a wide range of possibilites, any of them could be manifest, but we've had so little time to analyze Thomas outside of his great March Madness run and a successful freshman season at LSU that no one's really sure of who he most resembles. We know he has hustle like crazy, a decent vertical, energy that could fill a stadium, a nose for rebounds, and an imposing shot-blocking presence…so why wasn't he taken higher in a draft so void of any real future stars, like many say Thomas will become?

Well, you can start with the fact that Tyrus isn't known for having a great shot, or for being an electric scorer, something a lot of teams look for at the top of the draft board, and something Toronto seemingly valued more than anything else this year. His consistency is also to be doubted; if he really only broke out and got to the top of the draft boards with an impressive showing during the NCAA Tournament, where was he all season and why wasn't he as highly touted? Sure, the national stage will give your skills more exposure, but if you're already good, you'll earn that extra attention; people will come to you.

Don't get me wrong, I think Thomas could flourish as a great defender, a nice finisher around the rim and a team-rallying hustle guy on the court, but that's such a stereotype for any athletic NBA draftee that it all starts to become the same, and soon enough, the next Dahntay Jones isn't any different from Hakim Warrick or Stromile Swift (hmmm, I wonder what kind of player the Grizzlies like to draft?). Everyone was so hyped on this guy coming out that there'll be a collective disappointment when he doesn't live up to his billing.

And don't even get me started on where he's going to play. This was one reason why I believe the Thomas-for-Aldridge trade never should've went down; there's actually a place for Tyrus in Portland, as a great defensive addition to a team that'll surely struggle in stopping anyone next year, on top of the fact that there was a vacancy for him at SF there. But no, both teams decided they'd swap picks, and now Thomas is stuck behind Ben Wallace and PJ Brown down low, and Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni on the wing. Yet again, why take the 4th just so he can look pretty on the bench?

The only way this would make sense is if Chicago were to trade away the bulk of their young players and go for it with Kevin Garnett. That way, with either Thomas going to Minnesota, or staying with the suddenly smaller rotation in Chicago, he'd likely find more playing time and thus justify his high selection. But unfortunately for now, following another blown move in the mold of Eddy Curry and Tyson Chandler, the only thing that either Thomas or the Bulls franchise will be seeing is red; the Bulls from the color of their angry fans faces, and Thomas, from the color of the warm-up he'll be wearing most of the game. I could see 9, 7 and 1.5 blocks.

But hey, he could end up being the next Elton Brand right? Oh yeah, where'd he end up?


Shelden Williams, 5th Overall, Atlanta:
Sound familiar? The Hawks still need a good point guard, Marcus Williams is still up there (prior to yet another point guard freefall at the NBA Draft), and they decide, 'Hey, let's take another tall, athletic guy, just like last year!. Ah, Draft Day for the Atlanta Hawks. Don't get me wrong, there's nothing bad about Shelden Williams in terms of what he can bring to a team, but if what he's bringing is already there?

To simplify it, imagine the Hawks were a picnic, and they hired people to bring them food. The first few people end up bringing potato salad. Hey, potato salad is good, no problem. But two bowls is enough, so next time they say, 'Hey that's cool, but this time we don't need potato salad'. Yet, they bring them potato salad. Alright, that's fine, there's another 29 picnics, and they have a nice variety, maybe we can trade. Or look over there, a table that says every picnic can choose one dish in order of how bad their current picnic is, we should choose something nice since our picnic sucks. So they hire one idiot to go over and pick, and he comes back with more potato salad. Do you see what I'm getting at here?

Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, the acquisition of Al Harrington; you can only play so many small forwards at once, but I don't think the Hawks realize that. Shelden Williams is a good player, but not a good pick for the Hawks, especially if they want any of their young guys to develop; all the draftees they bring in are just compounding one on the other, and neither of them is getting enough playing time to prove or improve anything.

On the other hand, why do this in the first place? Josh Smith is a jaw-dropping shot blocker and probably more athletic than Williams (again, there's only one ball, how many great shot blockers do you need?); Marvin Williams is supposed to be the future of the Hawks, and could play PF if need be, seeing as he's the same height as Shelden, and whatever low-post scoring the former Dukie could provide wouldn't be that great of an improvement over what they're getting now from Zaza Pachulia and Al Harrington.

I could see if they wanted to improve their defense and rebounding, since Williams is naturally great at both, but nothing he brings to the team is anything more than what they already have. So in what has become all-too-common fashion, the Hawks management yet again prove their collective ignorance when it comes to draft day, a tradition that was only strengthened last year by not drafting Chris Paul, the promising point guard who actually wanted to play for the floundering franchise.

While he's still a good player and just a bad pick, when you're drawing comparisons to someone like Antonio Davis, who's never averaged more than 10 rebounds or 14.5 points, it's never a good sign. While in truth his ceiling is more like that of a middle-class man's Alonzo Mourning, due to his shot-blocking and low post scoring (something that many younger NBA fans may forget the 20 ppg Mourning had), he'll be lucky if he can ever reach that point with a run-down team like the Hawks.

They'll depend on a lot of scoring from last season's pick-up Joe Johnson, and Williams will lose a lot of playing time to the more established roster players, unless a trade were to go down to free up some playing time for him. Should he get any good time on the floor, he may get 11, 8 and 2 blocks, but even that may be reaching with the iffy coaching and management of the Hawks.

 

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